CIAの報告

• Psychology of Intelligence Analysisと言うのがある。1999年の報告
• 目次
  • Introduction by Jack Davis
  • PART I--OUR MENTAL MACHINERY
    • Chapter 1: Thinking About Thinking
    • Chapter 2: Perception: Why Can't We See What Is There to Be Seen?
    • Chapter 3: Memory: How Do We Remember What We Know?
  • PART II--TOOLS FOR THINKING
    • Chapter 4: Strategies for Analytical Judgment: Transcending the Limits of Incomplete Information
    • Chapter 5: Do You Really Need More Information?
    • Chapter 6: Keeping an Open Mind
    • Chapter 7: Structuring Analytical Problems
    • Chapter 8: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
  • PART III--COGNITIVE BIASES
    • Chapter 9: What Are Cognitive Biases?
    • Chapter 10: Biases in Evaluation of Evidence
    • Chapter 11: Biases in Perception of Cause and Effect
    • Chapter 12: Biases in Estimating Probabilities
    • Chapter 13: Hindsight Biases in Evaluation of Intelligence Reporting
  • PART IV--CONCLUSIONS
    • Chapter 14: Improving Intelligence Analysis
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